According to On-Chain analyst Cauê Oliveira, the benchmark cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC/USD) may see “maximum pressure” later in the year. He also identifies the range between $14,500 and $10,000 as the most likely bottom for the bear market in 2022.
The BlockTrends analyst notes in a data analysis findings indicated ‘Bear Market Rally or the start of a new Bull Market?’ that despite the difficulties that has characterized the dip from the all-time highs set in 2021, the bear market at its current outlook is “mild” compared to both 2014 and 2018. This comparison is made because the market downturn at its present situation is “milder” than it was in 2018.
What comes next: a new bottom, a rally in the bear market, or a new bull market?
During the previous twenty-four hours, the price of bitcoin has decreased by more than seven percent, and it is currently trading somewhere around $21,760 across the majority of cryptocurrency exchanges and platforms. The drops, which have paralleled losses in the equity market, came after a brief rise to highs above $25,000 last week – a surge that saw BTC break above the critical 200-week moving average. These declines have mimicked the losses that have been seen in the equity market.
When seen as a whole, however, Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrency market continue to be in a bear market trend. The recent lows of $17,600 represent the trough of a slide that began after bulls reached highs of more than $69,000 in November of the previous year.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin has gained approximately 23% from its lows in June 2022 to its present position. The price of bitcoin has increased by more than 45 percent from its all-time low since last week’s increases, which brought it to a level above $25,000.
In comparison, the bear market in 2014 saw short-term rallies of up to 83%, which was sufficient to convince some people that the worst of the misery was behind them. The same thing happened again in 2018, with prices falling to new lows despite the bear market recovery, which included recoveries of up to 65 percent.
Oliveira says that another “local sales exhaustion,” referring to the prior prognosis, might not lead to a new bull changing trends but might open up possibility for a retest of even lower support levels. He makes this assertion by pointing to the previous outlook.
If the movement that is occurring right now continues, we will arrive at the region with the highest pressure toward the end of the year, beginning in October. Within an acceptable trading range of $10,000 to $14,500.”
Notably, the fall to new lows or even lower than $20,000 may possibly pave the way for new bullish pressure, which would cause BTC to return to levels higher than those seen recently. Even potential new resistance in the $28,000 to $30,000 range could be targeted by buyers (or higher).